Converting the Line of Control into an International Border remains a practical solution to end Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war against India.
The Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 has pushed Delhi and Islamabad onto a new strategic path, demanding the attention of the entire security community. As the deadliest civilian attack since Mumbai 2008, its brutality — including religious profiling and executions — aims to terrorise Indians, destabilise Kashmir’s economy, and fuel communal tensions nationwide. Unlike past “fidayeen” missions, this assault was precise, with a planned exfiltration. While a full probe is pending, India has responded with diplomatic steps like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and authorising the military to plan a response operation.
Strategic Goal
Craft a long-term response to terror attacks that:
Step 1: Study Past Indian Responses
To design an effective strategy, evaluate which past responses best served India’s national security.
|
Year/Event |
Response Type |
Key Outcomes |
|
2001 (Parliament Attack) |
Operation Parakram: Full-scale military mobilisation |
Demonstrated resolve, but lacked long-term strategic effect |
|
2007 (Samjhauta Express Attack) |
Sought joint investigation with Pakistan |
Diplomatic initiative with limited tangible results |
|
2008 (Mumbai Attacks) |
Global diplomatic campaign to isolate Pakistan |
Resulted in FATF grey-listing; forced Pakistan’s public acknowledgment |
|
2016 (Pathankot Attack) |
Invited Pakistani investigators to airbase |
Controversial move; yielded little outcome |
|
2016 (Uri Attack) |
Cross-LoC surgical strikes on terror camps in PoK |
Tactical success; changed engagement rules |
|
2019 (Pulwama Attack) |
Balakot airstrikes beyond PoK; IAF pilot captured |
Created escalation risks; tested air superiority and international optics |
Step 2: Evaluate the Pahalgam Attack Context
Step 3: Required Response Strategies
Indian planners must move beyond past templates. Three distinct yet coordinated strategies are required:
Step 4: Watch for 3 Strategic Wild Cards
1. Pakistan’s Military Leadership – Gen. Asim Munir
2. China’s Role
3. Indian Political Pressure
The diplomatic road ahead
|
Focus Area |
Key Points |
|
Global Pressure to De-escalate |
India must resist pressure from US, UK, EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia calling for restraint. |
|
IWT Suspension Fallout |
World Bank, China, and Bangladesh may oppose India’s move to suspend IWT. |
|
UNSC Challenges |
Recent UNSC statement was diluted, omitting TRF and India’s authority, due to Pakistan’s role. |
|
Targeting TRF Diplomatically |
Push for UNSC and US listings of TRF as a terrorist group, as with LeT and JeM. |
|
Revive FATF & CCIT Strategy |
Use FATF pressure again; relaunch CCIT proposal on global terror. |
|
Engage Opposition Diplomatically |
Deploy Opposition & J&K leaders abroad, like Indira Gandhi (1971) and Narasimha Rao (1994). |
Conclusion
It is, therefore, essential to declare the end of Rawalpindi’s ‘jugular vein’ theory and its aspirations of reuniting the now fragmented regions of Jammu and Kashmir or annexing the Kashmir Valley. New Delhi must reconsider the 2007 LoC agreement proposals, which aimed to transform the Line of Control (LoC) or ceasefire line into a de-facto border, eventually leading to its recognition as a permanent International Border. The international community’s role, if any, would be to ensure that Pakistan commits to this arrangement — if it seeks to promote a lasting equilibrium in the region.