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05 May 2025 : India must rethink its Arctic outlook

Editorial 2: India must rethink its Arctic outlook

Context

The growing militarization of the Arctic calls for a fresh perspective from New Delhi.

 

Introduction

As conflict zones multiply globally, another frontier is quietly slipping into turmoil — the Arctic. Long seen as a realm of scientific cooperation and environmental protection, the polar north is becoming a theatre of military and geopolitical competition. With Russia more assertive, China expanding its Arctic ambitions, and Washington renewing interest in Greenland, the region appears set for a renewed phase of strategic contestation. The Arctic's shift to the center of global power competition is driven by climate change, which has opened new maritime routes like the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Once limited to summer, it is now a year-round passage, increasing traffic and reshaping global trade.

 

A growing militarisation

Aspect

Explanation

Militarisation of the Arctic

The Arctic is becoming more militarised with states reopening military bases, deploying submarines, and asserting control through force, raising the stakes for influence in the region.

Historical Context

The militarisation trend is not new. Actions like Donald Trump’s 2019 proposal to buy Greenlandshowed the Arctic’s growing geopolitical importance.

India's Response

India remains insulated from the shifting Arctic realities, focusing on other regional challenges. Its 2022 Arctic Policy emphasizes climate science and sustainable development, drawing parallels with the Himalayan “Third Pole”.

Policy Limitations

India’s policy overlooks the Arctic’s evolving strategic landscape. Its restrained approach risks sidelining it in the emerging Arctic order.

India's Arctic Presence

India operates a research station in Svalbard, contributes to polar expeditions, and has observer statusin the Arctic Council, but these efforts were designed for a more cooperative environment now disrupted by geopolitics.

A constructive role for India

  • NSR Viability: As the Northern Sea Route (NSR) becomes more viable, trade flows could shift north, undermining the importance of Indian Ocean sea lanes.
  • Arctic Sea Routes: If Russia and China dominate Arctic sea routes, India’s connectivity hub aspirations in the Indo-Pacific (through SAGAR and IPOI) could face significant challenges.
  • Blurring Boundaries: Growing Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic and China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean complicate India’s focus on its southern maritime interests.
  • Nordic Concerns: Increasing unease among Nordic states over India’s ties with Russia, especially amid the Ukraine war, adds pressure.
  • India’s Arctic Diplomacy: India needs to reassure its Arctic partners that an approach based on strategic autonomy can benefit all sides.

 

A more purposeful engagement

  • Institutionalisation: India must expand Arctic engagement beyond science with dedicated desks in the Foreignand Defence Ministries, regular inter-agency consultations, and partnerships with strategic think tanks.
  • Partnerships: Collaborate with like-minded Arctic states on dual-use initiatives such as polar logistics, maritime domain awareness, and satellite monitoring, boosting credibility without provoking concerns.
  • Governance & Diplomacy: Claim a seat at emerging Arctic governance forums focused on infrastructure, shipping regulation, digital standards, and the blue economy. Engage in the region with sensitivity, respecting local communities and avoiding an extractive mindset.

 

Conclusion

India's current Arctic posture has merit, but it is no longer sufficient. It relies on the belief that scientific cooperation and climate diplomacy can bridge growing geopolitical fault lines, a hope that is quickly fading. The Arctic is now defined more by power than principle. Those unwilling to adapt may find themselves excluded from the emerging order.