Article 1: Dry days
Why in news: India may face a weaker monsoon due to emerging El Niño conditions, which reduce rainfall, along with uncertain climate interactions, despite possible moderation from the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Key Details
- IMD forecasts 8% below normal rainfall for June–September
- Early deficit warnings often align with drought-like outcomes
- El Niño weakens monsoon, especially in later months
- Indian Ocean Dipole may partially offset rainfall reduction
- Policy preparedness needed for water, fertilizer, and farming support
Monsoon Outlook: Likely Deficit Ahead
- After two years of excess rainfall, India may now face a significant shortfall.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an 8% deficit for the June–September monsoon.
- This falls under the category of “below normal” rainfall, with a ±5% margin of error.
IMD Forecast Trends and Reliability
- Historically, IMD has often predicted “normal” monsoons that turned into drought-like situations.
- When IMD signals a deficit early (in April), it has frequently been followed by actual drought conditions.
- The IMD avoids using the term “drought”, instead labeling rainfall below 90% as “deficient.”
Past Example: 2015 Monsoon
- In April 2015, IMD predicted 93% of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall (below normal).
- However, the actual rainfall dropped further to 86% of LPA, indicating a worse outcome than forecasted.
Role of El Niño and Climate Factors
- A likely El Niño (warming of the central Pacific Ocean) is expected to weaken the monsoon, especially in August–September.
- Historically, El Niño has led to deficient monsoons in 9 out of 16 cases since 1950.
- However, the timing and intensity of El Niño are crucial in determining its impact.
Uncertainty, Risks, and Government Response
- In some years like 2019, El Niño effects were weaker, resulting in better-than-expected rainfall.
- This year, the Indian Ocean Dipole may partly offset the negative impact of El Niño.
- Additional risks include global tensions (e.g., West Asia) affecting fertilizer and gas supply.
- The government should focus on:
- Strengthening fertilizer availability
- Efficient water management, especially in reservoirs
- Providing timely guidance to farmers on sowing strategies
Conclusion
India’s monsoon outlook appears uncertain, with a likely rainfall deficit driven by El Niño and global climatic variations. While mitigating factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole may help, risks remain significant. Proactive government action by ensuring fertilizer supply, managing water resources, and guiding farmers will be crucial to reduce agricultural stress and maintain food security during a potentially weak monsoon season.
Descriptive question:
Q. “Discuss the factors responsible for variability in the Indian monsoon. In light of recent forecasts, examine the impact of El Niño and suggest measures to mitigate the effects of deficient rainfall on agriculture and economy.” (15 marks, 250 words)