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The Hindu Editorial Analysis
14 January 2025

 Editorial 1: The Trump card, global politics and outcomes for India

Context

The world is in for ‘interesting’ and tumultuous times with the Trumpian worldview to take effect soon

 

Introduction

Dissecting the psychology of the next U.S. President is a popular pastime. Trumps bold, disinhibited speaking style, his outspokenness, his focus on deal-making, his real estate background that defines his coercive leadership and politics, cast him very differently from his predecessors. He is a polarising figure, wading constantly into controversy, stubbornly resilient, a master of populist rhetoric, presenting himself as the voice of the “common people” arraigned against an out-of-touch political establishment.

 

It’s ‘America first’

  • Trump's approach to the "Rules-Based International Order": Mr. Trump’s approach to the “rules-based international order” is particularly shaped by an “America First” doctrine.
    • He debunks multilateralism in global politics, and he trashes international agreements that he believes do not favour the United States.
    • He prefers bilateral agreements over multilateral ones: witness his approach to the Paris Climate Agreement (from which he withdrew and is likely to withdraw again) and to trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
    • He is dismissive of international institutions like the United Nations and regional bodies such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, saying that these disproportionately benefit other nations at the expense of the U.S..
    • He places American sovereignty over global governance.
  • Trumpian worldview: In the Trumpian worldview, strategy revolves around the bully pulpit, strong personal branding, a willingness to take risks, unconventional deal-makingwinner-take-all in place of win-win.
    • Practical outcomes rather than theoretical constructs are emphasised.
  • Trump’s transactionalism and MAGA Policy: Donald Trump’s transactionalism is legend.
    • His MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) policy will have implications influencing global geopolitics.
    • This will entail a rise of protectionism in global trade (free trade is an anachronism in this scheme of things), escalating tariffs and trade wars and increased economic uncertainty.
    • Intensified competition with China where Beijing is clearly framed as an economic and ideological adversary will affect global stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Impact of Trump's skepticism about global institutions: Mr. Trump’s scepticism about global institutions will inspire adventurism in global politics and nationalisms that override international law.
    • Polarisation in global politics will be increasingly in evidence, and debates on free tradeimmigration, and globalisation will become increasingly fractious.
    • Climate policy and action will be downgraded.
    • Instability in global markets will affect nations, whether developed or developing, across the board.
  • American Isolationism and Its Global Consequences
    • American isolationism under MAGA (since Mr. Trump has clearly signalled opposition to U.S. direct involvement in external conflict), can encourage powers such as China and Russia already united in their opposition to the U.S.’s power and influence, to expand their global footprint, using both economic and military means.
    • MAGA could be synonymous with disruption beyond American shores and power realignments.

 

Ties with India, the line for New Delhi

  • Strategic outlook for India-U.S. relations under a second Trump presidency: The strategic outlook for India-U.S. relations under a second Trump Presidency is mixed.
    • Relations between the two countries have witnessed a steady evolution and multi-faceted growth over the last two decades across partisan divides.
    • This trend is expected to continue, especially since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Trump have a warm friendship.
    • India has stressed constructive engagement with the U.S. as a key strategic partner.
  • Geopolitical Clout and Mutual Interests in Countering China: India’s growing geopolitical clout and a mutual interest with the U.S. in countering China (particularly because of the over-assertive Chinese military posture and transgressions across the Line of Actual Control) provide a strong impetus for a growing strategic partnership.
    • India-U.S. defence cooperation will continue to strengthen together with partnerships in critical technologies (provided the new administration does not use export controls as pressure points) and business.
    • Trade frictions could, however, be a complicating factor.
  • Strengthening Groupings like the Quad: The countering of Chinese influence in the region by the incoming U.S. administration suggests that groupings such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad or the U.S.AustraliaIndia, and Japan), where India is an important constituent, will be strengthened.
    • The maintenance of the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific requires the continued involvement of the U.S., even though India is cautious about an over-reliance on America and seeks to ensure its very own strategic autonomy.
    • India’s Indo-Pacific vision stresses regional cooperationmultilateralism, and multipolarity.
  • India's strategic priorities: India would do well to continue to emphasise its own strategic priorities, as shaped by historygeopoliticsnational security, its economic interests, and civilisational identity.
    • Its border security, a strong defence posture, military modernisation, intensified counterterrorism effortsthrough strengthened intelligenceanti-radicalisation, and a continued focus on fighting cross-border terrorism, remain of central concern.
  • Economic growth and energy security: The compulsion of economic growth is central to its strategic outlook.
    • India’s energy securitydiversification of energy sources, building renewable energy, and the maintenance of stable relationships with key energy suppliers are vital.
    • Peace and stability in South Asia are important, as also vigilance about containing and neutralising destabilising influences in the region, particularly from China and Pakistan.
  • Security of the Indo-Pacific: as a key maritime and economic passageway is a strategic priority.
    • India’s partnerships with JapanAustralia, the European Union, and ASEAN countries, apart from the U.S., are essential to the balancing of China’s rise, ensuring India’s access to key technologiesdefence preparedness, and for its trade and economic development.
  • India's Digital transformation and soft power: Key for its strategic future are its digital transformationspace explorationartificial intelligencecybersecurity for its digital infrastructure, and building resilience against cyber threats from hostile nations and non-state actors.
    • India’s priorities should incorporate a deployment of soft power in an emphasis on democratic and constitutional valuespluralismhumanitarian engagement, and diaspora outreach.
  • Strategic Relationship with Russia
    • The relationship with Russia must continue to be in focus because of the complex and diversified nature of India’s strategic partnership with that country, and because of the counterweight it provides to the growing Sino-Russian alignment in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.

 

Conclusions: On Trump again

The reality of the second Trump Presidency, and Mr. Trump’s victory in the elections, indicate that established patterns of history and geopolitics that served as guides to the future may no longer apply as the positioning system for a global order that will instead be disruptive, polarised and unstable. Global politics, all said, may never be the same. As the American analyst, Ian Bremmer, recently noted, a G-Zero world has arrived, and the law of the jungle may provide the new global playbook.


Editorial 2: Resisting transparency, eroding public trust 

Context

The amendment to Rule 93(2) of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, to restrict public access to election-related records, has no place in a democracy.

 

Introduction

Last year, presiding officer Anil Masih was caught on CCTV camera manipulating votes in the Chandigarh mayor elections to help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secure victory. The incident underlined the importance of infusing transparency in the electoral process to detect and prevent election fraud. It is ironic then that even before the year ended, the Central government brought an amendment to Rule 93(2) of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, to restrict public access to election-related records.

  • Amendment following High Court direction: The amendment came days after the Punjab and Haryana High Court directed the Election Commission of India (ECI) to provide information under Rule 93(2) of the Conduct of Election Rules.
    • Copies of Form 17C and CCTV footage of the Assembly elections in Haryana were among the records sought by the petitioner.
  • Rule 93 of the Conduct of Election Rules: Rule 93 of the Conduct of Election Rules provides a framework for people to obtain information related to elections.
    • Rule 93(2) originally stated that other than the records specifically exempt under Rule 93(1), all papers relating to elections shall be available for people to inspect and take copies of.
  • Narrowing of Public Right to Information: The amendment to Rule 93(2) narrows the scope of people’s right to information by adding a qualification that only “papers as specified in these rules relating to the election shall be open to public inspection.”
    • Records related to the electoral process, including Form 17Cvideo recordings, and CCTV footage, will potentially get caught in the crosshairs of the new amendment.

 

Delays that led to doubts

  • Disconcerting role of the ECI: The role of the Election Commission of India (ECI) in the matter is particularly disconcerting.
    • One of the safeguards in the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to prevent the ruling party from arbitrarily misusing its power to frame rules is that the rules can be made only “after consulting the Election Commission.”
    • It is baffling why the institution vested with the responsibility of ensuring free and fair elections is opposed to transparency, especially at a time when serious questions have been raised about the sanctity of the electoral process.
  • ECI's Handling of Voter Turnout Figures in 2024: In the general elections of 2024, the ECI did not put out voter turnout figures in absolute numbers after the completion of voting in the initial phases.
    • This, coupled with an unusually high revision of 6% in voter turnout in some phases of the election, without any explanation, prompted a public demand for disclosure of Form 17C.
  • Form 17C and its significance: Part I of Form 17C is filled by the Presiding Officer of each polling station at the close of voting and is submitted to the Returning Officer of the constituency. It contains information on the voter turnout and the number of votes recorded in the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM).
    • Part II is filled on the day of counting by noting the votes secured by each candidate as recorded in the EVMs.
    • The documents reveal whether or not voter turnout tallies with the votes polled and counted.
  • Political parties' demand for Form 17C: Several political parties sought copies of Form 17C after the general elections, claiming an abnormally large increase in voter turnout between the figures declared by the ECI at the close of polls on the day of voting and the final turnout declared a few days later.
    • For instance, an ally of the BJP, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), claimed a massive increase between the two figures in some constituencies in Odisha, raising doubts about the integrity of the election process.
  • Concerns raised in Haryana and Maharashtra elections: In the Assembly elections held in Haryana and Maharashtra, similar concerns were raised, and applications were again filed seeking copies of Form 17C and other election records.

 

Refusal to disclose information

  • Stonewalling of requests by the ECI: Unfortunately, all these requests were stonewalled by the ECI.
    • In a petition to the ECI, the BJD complained that even its candidates were denied copies of Form 17C, despite making requests under the Representation of the People Act and the Right to Information Act, 2005.
  • ECI's opposition to proactive disclosure of form 17C: When the matter of proactive disclosure of Form 17C was agitated in the Supreme Court, the ECI opposed it on the specious grounds that there is no legal mandate to share Form 17C with anyone other than the candidates and political parties through their designated polling agents.
    • The ECI claimed that there is a “one-to-one relationship between each Form 17C and its possessor” and its unrestricted disclosure is amendable to mischief as people may morph the images.
    • Further, the ECI argued that there is no technical facility to scan the documents.
  • Inexplicable reluctance of the ECI to share form 17C: The ECI’s reluctance to share copies of Form 17C is inexplicable.
    • Copies of Part 1 of Form 17C are given to polling agents who are present at the booth, and there is no prohibition on their further dissemination.
    • In Digital India, the claim that Returning Officers don’t have the technical facility to scan and upload a couple of thousand pages is scarcely credible.
  • Release of statistical reports without form 17C data
    • On December 26, 2024, more than six months after the general elections, the ECI released a set of 42 statistical reports, terming it a “Treasure Trove for stakeholders including academicians, researchers, and election watchers worldwide”.
    • This too had no data from Form 17C, which would conclusively resolve the vexed issue of difference between votes polled and counted.

 

Conclusion

Transparency is key to ensure public trust and participation in the electoral process. In 2024, the Supreme Court struck down the electoral bonds scheme as being violative of a voter’s fundamental right to information. A challenge to the new amendment has already reached the apex court. Rather than wait for the verdict of the judiciary, the ECI and the BJP would do well to realise that this amendment has no place in a democracy and withdraw it.