Editorial 1 : A world in disarray, a concern about the future
Context
Seldom has a concatenation of circumstances across the world led to this degree of concern about the future. Many factors are responsible for this.
Growing chaos, an absent leadership
- Since 2022, geo-politics has been in various stages of disarray. While the ‘rules-based international order’, basically a creation of the West, is virtually dead today, it did succeed for a time in maintaining a semblance of peace across many regions.
- As the West seemed to weaken, and alongside the rise of China, new alliance patterns emerged. None of them, however, possessed sufficient heft to sustain a peaceful global order.
- Today, large parts of the world are in chaos, though ‘shooting wars’ are limited to a few pockets such as Ukraine and Gaza.
- What is more disconcerting is the absence of leaders with a sober mien, who command a degree of influence across nations and continents, whether it is Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin or Joe Biden.
- The vast majority of other western leaders clearly lack the qualities needed to sustain a peaceful international order.
- Many increasingly face problems in sustaining their fiefdoms. Meantime, the march of history and the progress of current technologies threaten to confine most of them to the detritus of history.
A new set of alliances
- Today, great power rivalry seems a little more than a shadow play, which has hardly any meaning.
- Outside war-torn Ukraine, and the time bomb that West Asia resembles at present, the U.S. and China are indulging in feints, using proxies to try and achieve their objectives.
- The U.S. has yet to overcome its hubris following the series of setbacks it has been facing since Afghanistan in 2020, which has removed much of the sheen attached to its being touted as a superpower.
- In the case of Europe, having leaned on NATO to protect itself from Russia’s offensive, it has little to offer. Europe again has little influence on Mr. Zelenskyy, notwithstanding the huge cost to their exchequers.
- China has been compelled to operate under the radar and its image as a superpower has diminished. Nevertheless, this has not prevented it from forging many new alliances across West Asia.
- Currently, the China-Russia-Iran axis has put a question mark on the predatory tactics of the U.S. and the West across much of West Asia.
The disruptors
- The politics of oil again is something that the world cannot ignore for much longer. The growing proximity, and the axis between China-Russia-Iran, indicate that military alliances apart, the politics of oil is set to roil the world in the near future.
- Next, technology is all set to become the ultimate disruptor. Manifest attempts are being made by several leading countries to enhance their national security by protecting vital technologies, over which they possess a near-monopoly today.
- Artificial Intelligence is already a potential threat as far as conventional war methodologies are concerned, but while the U.S. and China are touted as militarily the most powerful today, smaller nations are beginning to pose a challenge, employing Artificial Intelligence, to level the playing field.
- Finally, it is also necessary to recognise that with most arms control agreements having frayed, new nuclear warheads and cruise missiles are possibly, if not already, being designed, and also, possibly, being kept in readiness for use.
- A nuclear makeover is already in the making and it is only a matter of time that demands are raised by countries that possess them to seek their use.
Conclusion
There is a well-known aphorism that stipulates that ‘wisdom lies in knowing when to stop. Most world leaders are not paying adequate attention to forecasts about the future of the world economies, more specifically when they include the economies of the more developed countries as well.
Editorial 2 : India’s nuanced approach in the South China Sea
Context
Recently, India’s full support for the Philippines in upholding its national sovereignty amid the ongoing South China or West Philippine Sea dispute between Manila and Beijing signals a departure from India’s earlier more cautionary and neutral position vis-à-vis the South China Sea.
A policy evolution
- New Delhi’s engagement with the region was initially primarily economic, driven by its Look East Policy, which aimed to enhance economic integration with Southeast Asia and the imperative to secure energy resources to fuel its growing economy.
- The participation of Indian state-owned enterprises, such as the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation’s overseas arm (ONGC Videsh), in oil and gas exploration projects in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and other similar ventures not only signified India’s economic stakes in the region but also its support for the principle of freedom of exploration and exploitation of maritime resources within the bounds of international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
- The transformation of India’s policy orientation from Look East to Act East under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has marked a shift towards a more strategic and active engagement with the Indo-Pacific region.
- This policy evolution reflects India’s acknowledgment of the changing geopolitical landscape and the need for a more proactive and multifaceted foreign policy approach with the Act East Policy emphasising not only economic integration but also strategic partnerships and expanded security cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific including Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, besides the Philippines.
- India has also simultaneously strengthened its own capacities through forward positioning, mission-based deployments, reinforced maritime domain awareness, and deep-water maritime facilities.
India’s complex ties with China
- The evolution of India’s position on the South China Sea cannot be decoupled from its complex relationship with China.
- The two countries have a long history of border disputes which have intensified since the Galwan Valley incident of 2020, with Beijing’s periodic incursions into India’s territory and, most recently, even renaming Indian villages in Arunachal Pradesh.
- The Galwan Valley incident also saw India sending a frontline warship to the South China Sea in a demonstration of India’s capability for asymmetric deterrence.
- India’s strategic engagements, including regular naval exercises and the strengthening of military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, serve dual purposes: they underscore India’s commitment to regional security and act as a counter to China’s unlawful assertions.
The ASEAN factor
- The disputes in the South China Sea, primarily involving China and several Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, have implications for the freedom of navigation and overflight — principles that are vital for not only India’s trade and energy transportation routes but also that of countries across the globe.
- As a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, India can no longer shy away from taking unambiguous positions on matters of such critical importance.
- The ASEAN centrality in India’s Indo-Pacific strategy also makes it imperative for India to buttress the ASEAN position, though differences within the regional grouping continue to pose a challenge to such endeavours.
Conclusion
- New Delhi’s advocacy for a rules-based international maritime order, especially its emphasis on UNCLOS, reflects a stance against unilateral actions that threaten regional stability.
- This stance, while rooted in India’s principled foreign policy approach, also indirectly challenges China’s expansive territorial claims and activities in the South China Sea and reflects India’s positioning of itself as a responsible stakeholder committed to regional stability and security.