Editorial 2: Indus treaty and strategy
Context:
Recent terror attacks in Pahalgam have renewed the debates on the relevance of Indus water treaty. India has pressed for renegotiating a new treaty. Pakistan fears of losing the control over Indus River and its tributaries.
About Indus Water Treaty (IWT):
- India and Pakistan signed the IWT in 1960 with World Bank as its guarantor. The treaty has survived for more than six decades despite four wars, cross-border terrorism and prolonged hostility with Pakistan.
- The Treaty divides the use of the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan:
- Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej): They are allocated exclusively to India. India can use these waters for consumptive needs (irrigation, domestic use, hydropower, etc.) without restriction.
- Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab): They are allocated to Pakistan. India has limited rights, such as: It can use it for navigation, fishing, building Run-of-the-river hydropower projects with design restrictions. It also has the right of limited irrigation use (up to 701,000 acres) of its waters.
- Permanent Indus Commission: It is a bilateral body to exchange data and resolve disputes.
- Dispute Resolution Mechanism: The IWT's (Indus Waters Treaty) dispute resolution mechanism is a three-tiered process outlined in Article IX: the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) for initial discussions, followed by a Neutral Expert if the PIC fails, and finally, a Court of Arbitration for unresolved disputes.
- This structured approach is designed to facilitate cooperation and peaceful settlement of issues, though disagreements have arisen over its application and effectiveness.
- Financial Arrangements: India paid £62 million to Pakistan to help build replacement canals and reservoirs.
Two views of IWT:
- Division of water was based on geography, terrain, gravity and the natural course of the rivers and not on the volumetric assessment of the water. The IWT has always been interpreted differently by both sides.
- Indian View: A generous gesture by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who believed water, could become a source of cooperation. India gave away bulk of the waters to Pakistan despite being the upper riparian.
- Pakistani View: The Treaty is inadequate and unfair. Pakistan harbors deep insecurity that India could manipulate flows of the western rivers, especially during the sowing season, to harm its agriculture.
- While Pakistan received control over 80% of the basin waters, India retained strategic control as the upper riparian state.
Pakistan’s Insecurity and Strategy:
- Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus system is near total, with agriculture and livelihoods linked directly to river flows.
- It repeatedly objects to Indian hydropower projects on the western rivers, such as Kishanganga and Ratle in Jammu & Kashmir.
- Islamabad’s strategy has been to internationalize disputes, dragging India frequently to Neutral Experts and Arbitration Courts.
- By framing India’s legitimate projects as violations, Pakistan sustains the narrative of “water insecurity” and keeps tensions alive.
- Pakistan wants the control over river flows. The Jammu and Kashmir issue between Indi and Pakistan is still not resolved due to Pakistan’s deep insecurity about water flow.
- Most of these rivers flow from J&K before entering Pakistan. Its desire to annex Kashmir is not only due to its territorial ambitions or religious motivations but also due to its desire to control Indus water and its tributaries.
- Despite the wars, cross border terrorism, treaty has survived for so long because India acted as a responsible upper-riparian state by not interrupting smooth water flow into the lower-riparian state Pakistan.
India’s Strategic Advantage:
- Despite the generosity of the Treaty, India retains important levers of control over these rivers.
- Upper Riparian Control: India can influence timing of flows by regulating reservoirs on western rivers within treaty limits.
- Hydropower Development: India is allowed to build run-of-the-river projects, which, if maximized, can enhance energy security in J&K and Ladakh.
- Diplomatic Leverage: In times of crisis (e.g., after the Uri and Pulwama attacks), India has hinted at reviewing or even suspending aspects of the Treaty to pressure Pakistan.
- So far, India has chosen restraint, prioritizing stability over coercion. However, experts argue that India must fully utilize its entitlements under the Treaty rather than leaving capacity unused
Way forward:
The Indus Waters Treaty represents a paradox: a symbol of cooperation amid hostility, but also a persistent source of friction. For India, the way forward lies in exercising its rights fully within the Treaty, investing in infrastructure, and using its riparian advantage as both a development tool and a diplomatic lever. For Pakistan, reconciliation with geographic reality may finally be the only path toward stability. At over six decades old, the Treaty still stands as a model of resilience, but its future will be determined by how both nations align their strategies with the realities of water, security, and climate change.