Editorial 1: Pak’s Iran balancing act
Context
Islamabad has extended strong rhetorical support to Tehran amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.
The Pak-Iran relationship
- This delicate, deliberate balancing act is a product of Pakistan’s complicated relationship with Iran as well as larger geopolitical considerations, especially regarding its relationship with the US and anxieties about India.
- The relationship between the two Islamic republics can be best described as fraternal and strategic albeit with perennially simmering mutual suspicion and hostility.
- Iran was the first country to recognise Pakistan in 1947, and the Shah’s regime extended military and diplomatic assistance to Pakistan during the 1965 and 1971 wars.
- But beyond the oft-emphasised veneer of Islamic brotherhood lie a number of friction points, which have surfaced frequently in the years after the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
A number of friction points
- The 900-km Iran-Pakistan border runs through the Baloch heartland, with the Pak province of Balochistan on one side and the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan on the other.
- Each side accuses the other of providing safe haven to separatist groups with at least 15 border clashes most recently in January 2024.
- Iran and Pakistan have long been at odds over Afghanistan, especially during the late 1990s when Shia-majority Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, wary of a hardline Sunni regime on its 921-km border.
- In contrast, Pakistan backed the Taliban, aligning with its strategic interests.
- Pakistan’s close relationship with Saudi Arabia—its key patron—has deepened the divide, as Saudi-funded Sunni madrasas in Pakistan have fueled sectarian tensions and empowered groups that often target the country’s Shia minority, further complicating ties with Iran.
The American angle
- Iran’s post-Revolution rupture with the US and Pakistan’s continuing reliance on American support has further complicated the Islamabad-Tehran relationship.
- Pakistan is a rentier economy, reliant on foreign aid. During the Cold War, even as India chose to remain non-aligned, Pakistan under Gen Ayub Khan joined the Western bloc, positioning itself as a bulwark against communist expansion in South Asia.
- Pakistan’s long-standing reliance on the US, solidified after 9/11 when it supported American operations in Afghanistan, has waned since NATO’s 2021 withdrawal and Washington’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific.
- With tensions rising between Iran and Israel, Pakistan sees a chance to regain geostrategic relevance.
- While expressing rhetorical support for Iran, Islamabad’s swift refusal to offer military aid reassures the US and Israel.
- Pakistan now positions itself as a potential mediator, with its leaders highlighting efforts to encourage Iran-US dialogue, contingent on a halt to Israeli strikes.
View from New Delhi
- From India’s view, three key points stand out.
- First, Pakistan is using recent US involvement in India-Pak tensions during Op Sindoor to re-hyphenate itself with India and restore US ties—much to New Delhi’s discomfort.
- Second, India’s strategic investments in Iran, like the Chabahar port, bypass Pakistan and challenge the relevance of Gwadar.
- Pakistan sees any chance to weaken India-Iran ties, even through rhetorical support for Tehran, as a strategic move, though these ties remain strong.
- Third, Pakistan views Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as setting a dangerous precedent—one that India might follow against its own nuclear assets in a future conflict.
Way forward
- To ensure regional stability, India must prioritize diplomatic engagement and uphold its responsible nuclear posture.
- Continuing to honour nuclear agreements, especially the 1991 pact with Pakistan, and reinforcing ties with Iran will help counter Pakistan’s strategic moves while promoting long-term peace and balance in the region.