Editorial 2: The Problem with Low Inflation
Context:
Inflation in India has fallen sharply in recent months and is expected to remain subdued. While this seems positive for consumers, it poses serious challenges for the government’s budget arithmetic and fiscal management. Low inflation translates into lower nominal GDP growth, which in turn affects tax revenues, borrowing capacity, and fiscal deficit management.
Inflation:
- Inflation refers to the sustained rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
- It reduces the purchasing power of money — i.e., each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. In India and globally, inflation is tracked using price indices:
Consumer Price Index (CPI):
- Measures changes in prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by households (food, housing, clothing, fuel, etc.). It is considered the most important measure because it reflects the cost of living. It is published monthly by NSO (MoSPI).
- Used by RBI for inflation targeting (4% ± 2% under the Monetary Policy Framework).
Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
- Measures changes in the prices of goods at the wholesale level (before retail sale).
- Covers manufactured products, fuel, and primary articles.
- It does not include services.
Fiscal deficit and inflation:
- When government borrows excessively or monetizes deficit (borrowing from RBI), it pumps more money into the economy.
- This can lead to demand-pull inflation if supply doesn’t keep up.
- Higher inflation increases nominal revenues (tax collections rise automatically with higher prices).
- But it also increases expenditure (especially subsidies, salaries, interest payments).
- Net effect depends on fiscal discipline and inflation management.
Recent trends in nominal GDP growth and inflation:
- In February 2025, the Finance Ministry projected India’s nominal GDP for FY26 at ₹357.1 lakh crore, assuming 10.1% growth over the revised estimate of FY25.
- Budget projections of revenue and expenditure are based on nominal GDP, which combines real growth and inflation.
- A fall in inflation reduces nominal GDP growth even if real GDP remains steady, creating gaps between projected and realized revenues.
- Thus, the gap between budget assumption (10.1%) and the actual trajectory of nominal GDP becomes the core issue.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has fallen to an average of 2.6% in April–August 2025, compared to 4.6% last year.
- Core inflation has dipped to historic lows due to weak demand and muted commodity prices.
- Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation also remains negative in several categories.
- On the growth side, while real GDP is projected to expand around 6.5–7%, the fall in inflation brings nominal GDP growth closer to 9–9.5%, below the 10.1% budget assumption
Inflation and Fiscal Arithmetic:
- Tax Revenues: Most taxes are levied ad valorem (on value). Lower inflation leads to smaller increases in tax collections despite rising consumption volumes.
- Debt Management: Government borrowing and fiscal deficit targets are calculated as a percentage of GDP. A lower denominator (nominal GDP) makes deficits look larger even if the actual borrowing is unchanged.
- Spending Pressures: Reduced revenues may constrain capital expenditure and welfare schemes, forcing the government to either cut spending or borrow more.
Broader Economic Implications:
- Revenue Shortfall: Direct tax collections (like corporate and income tax) depend on profits and wages, which rise slower under low inflation. Indirect taxes (GST, excise, customs) depend on transaction values. With muted prices, collection growth weakens.
- Deficit Management: A revenue shortfall widens the fiscal deficit unless spending is cut.Fiscal deficit ratios appear worse since the denominator (GDP) grows more slowly.
- Monetary Policy Angle: Persistently low inflation allows the RBI to keep interest rates accommodative. But excessively low inflation (disinflation/deflation risk) may depress private investment, profits, and wages.
- Growth Concerns: While consumer purchasing power improves, low producer prices reduce corporate profitability, delaying capacity expansion. Exports also face challenges as weak global demand keeps prices subdued.
Policy options for RBI and government:
- Realistic Budgeting: Future budgets should factor in moderate inflation assumptions, reducing reliance on overly optimistic nominal GDP projections.
- Revenue Diversification: Strengthening non-tax revenues (disinvestment, dividends, asset monetization) can help bridge gaps.
- Boosting Demand: Policies to support consumption and private investment are essential to avoid stagnation.
- Countercyclical Fiscal Policy: Flexibility in deficit targets during low-inflation phases may be justified to sustain growth.
Way Forward:
Low inflation is a double-edged sword, while it benefits consumers and stabilizes household budgets; it weakens the government’s fiscal position by reducing nominal GDP growth and tax revenues. The challenge for policymakers lies in balancing consumer welfare with fiscal sustainability. For India, ensuring realistic budget assumptions, strengthening revenue sources, and maintaining growth-supportive policies will be crucial to navigating this period of low inflation.