Article 1: Below-Normal Monsoon and Heatwaves in India
Why in News: The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon (92% of LPA) amid a developing El Niño Southern Oscillation, raising concerns about water stress, heatwaves, and climate variability in India.
Key Details
- IMD has projected below-normal rainfall with limited regions receiving normal or above-normal precipitation. This indicates uneven rainfall distribution, increasing risks of drought in some regions and floods in others.
- The ENSO phenomenon is developing rapidly and may influence the monsoon from mid-season onwards. Early onset of El Niño conditions can suppress rainfall and intensify heatwaves across India.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may partially offset ENSO effects during later stages of monsoon. However, its impact is uncertain and may not fully compensate for rainfall deficits.
- Heatwave conditions are expected to persist longer due to subdued rainfall. This could extend extreme temperatures into the monsoon season and beyond.
ENSO and Monsoon Linkage
- El Niño Effect: El Niño leads to warming of Pacific Ocean waters, reducing moisture transport to India. This generally weakens the southwest monsoon and results in below-normal rainfall.
- La Niña Effect: La Niña strengthens monsoon circulation and enhances rainfall over India. It is usually associated with above-normal precipitation and cooler temperatures.
- ENSO Cycle: ENSO occurs every 2–7 years and affects global weather systems. Recent trends show increasing frequency and intensity, raising climate concerns.
- IOD Role: The Indian Ocean Dipole can either amplify or counter ENSO effects. A positive IOD may bring additional rainfall to India, offering partial relief.
Changing Rainfall Patterns in India
- Spatial Concentration: Rainfall is becoming geographically concentrated in fewer regions. This leads to uneven water availability and regional imbalances.
- Temporal Concentration: Rainfall is occurring in shorter, intense bursts rather than steady showers. This reduces groundwater recharge and increases runoff losses.
- Extreme Events: Increase in extreme rainfall events leads to floods even during deficit years. This highlights the disconnect between total rainfall and disaster risk.
- Climate Change Impact: Global warming is altering monsoon dynamics and variability. It is making rainfall more erratic and less predictable.
Heatwaves in India
- IMD Definition: A heatwave is declared when temperature rises 5°C above normal for two consecutive days. A severe heatwave is declared when the deviation exceeds 7°C.
- Core Heatwave Zone: Northwestern, central India, and parts of eastern India are most affected. These regions experience persistent high-pressure systems leading to extreme heat.
- Coastal Heatwaves: Andhra Pradesh and Odisha face heatwaves due to disrupted sea breezes. Hot winds from inland areas prevent cooling effects of the ocean.
- Rising Trends: Frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves have increased significantly. This is linked to both climate change and ENSO conditions.
Heatwaves and ENSO Linkage
- El Niño Impact: El Niño years are associated with more frequent and severe heatwaves. This is due to reduced cloud cover and higher solar radiation.
- Lag Effect: Heatwaves are often more intense in the year following El Niño. This creates prolonged climate stress beyond a single season.
- Temperature Persistence: High temperatures may extend into monsoon months. This reduces the cooling effect usually associated with rainfall.
- Future Projections: Climate models suggest increasing heatwave risk across India. Even southern and northeastern regions may face such events in future.
Water Stress and Management Challenges
- Declining Water Availability: Erratic rainfall reduces groundwater recharge. This increases dependence on unsustainable extraction methods.
- Runoff Losses: Intense rainfall leads to rapid runoff instead of water absorption. This results in soil erosion and loss of fertile topsoil.
- Urban Water Crisis: Cities face water shortages despite heavy rainfall events. Poor storage and infrastructure limit effective utilisation.
- Inefficient Usage: India reuses only about 3% of treated wastewater. This indicates significant scope for improving water efficiency.
Traditional and Modern Water Management
- Traditional Systems: Historical structures like tanks, stepwells, and reservoirs stored rainwater. These systems ensured water availability during dry periods.
- Decline of Systems: Urbanisation and neglect have led to disappearance of such structures. This has increased vulnerability to water stress.
- Circular Water Economy: Reuse and recycling of water can improve sustainability. It treats wastewater as a resource rather than waste.
- Global Best Practices: Countries like Singapore reuse a significant portion of water. India can adopt similar models for efficient water management.
Policy and Governance Issues
- Pricing Challenge: Water is underpriced, leading to overuse and inefficiency. At the same time, tanker markets show people are willing to pay for reliable supply.
- Infrastructure Gaps: Lack of investment in water infrastructure affects supply reliability. This limits the ability of governments to ensure equitable distribution.
- Institutional Coordination: Multiple agencies handle water management with limited coordination. This leads to inefficiencies and policy gaps.
- Need for Reform: Transparent pricing and improved service delivery are essential. This will build trust and ensure sustainable water usage.
Disaster Management and Heat Action Plans
- Heat Action Plans: Many states implement plans involving water access, shelters, and awareness. These measures aim to reduce heat-related mortality.
- Limitations: Implementation varies across regions and lacks uniform effectiveness. Many vulnerable populations remain unprotected.
- Policy Gap: Heatwaves are not fully recognised as notified disasters. This limits access to disaster relief funds.
- Recent Recommendations: Finance Commission has suggested including heatwaves as disasters. This will improve funding and response mechanisms.
Way Forward
- Water Conservation: Promote rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge. This will reduce dependence on uncertain monsoon rainfall.
- Climate-Resilient Planning: Integrate climate risks into urban and rural planning. This will improve preparedness against extreme events.
- Technological Solutions: Use advanced forecasting and data analytics for better prediction. This can enhance early warning systems.
- Policy Reforms: Implement water pricing, reuse policies, and governance reforms. This will ensure sustainable and equitable water management.
Conclusion
The likely below-normal monsoon is not just a seasonal concern but a warning signal of deeper water stress and climate challenges. India must shift towards sustainable water management, climate resilience, and proactive policy measures to secure its future.
EXPECTED QUESTIONS FOR UPSC CSE
Prelims MCQ
Q. With reference to El Niño, consider the following statements:
- It leads to warming of Pacific Ocean waters.
- It generally strengthens the Indian monsoon.
- It is associated with increased heatwave frequency in India.
How many of the above statements are correct?
(a) Only one
(b) Only two
(c) All three
(d) None
Answer: (b)
Descriptive Question
Q. Discuss the impact of climate change on monsoon variability and water stress in India. Suggest measures for sustainable water management. (250 words, 15 marks)