Editorial 2 : The Road from Pahalgam
Context: Pahalgam terror attack
Introduction: Terrorist attack at Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam killed 25 tourists and a local. The attack breaks the unwritten compact where terrorists historically avoided targeting tourists. This threatens J&K’s tourism-dependent economy, risking widespread socio-economic hardship.
Historical Context of Terrorism in J&K
- Tourist Targeting Trends
- A total of 24 incidents targeting tourists since 2000, of which 13 were incidents of killing, resulting in 44 fatalities.
- Exclusion of Pilgrims: Hindu pilgrims were never part of the implicit compact.
- Violence Peaks
- 2001: Highest fatalities (4,011).
- 2012: Lowest fatalities (121), followed by resurgence until 2020.
- 2024: 127 fatalities (steady decline since 2020).
Impact on Tourism and Economy
- Tourism’s Role
- Vital for livelihoods, virtually all Valley families depend on tourism directly or indirectly.
- 2024 Data: 23.6 million tourists visited J&K before the attack.
- Post-Attack Concerns
- Short-term decline in tourist activities likely.
- Long-term economic instability if attacks persist.
Government’s Normalcy Narrative Post-Article 370
- Government’s Promise: Zero terrorism post-Article 370 abrogation (2019).
- Contradictions
- Persistent terrorism (e.g. Reasi attack on Hindu pilgrims in 2024).
- Active terrorist strength: 76 (59 foreign, 17 local) as of March 2025.
- Progress Metrics
- Fatalities dropped from 4,011 (2001) to 127 (2024).
- Security grid improvements reduced terrorist operational capacity.
Perpetrators and Regional Dynamics
- Responsibility for Pahalgam Attack
- The attack is likely orchestrated by The Resistance Front (TRF), a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) front.
- Pakistani state support is suspected (funding/logistics, if not direct planning).
- Jammu recorded 59 fatalities in 2023, dispelling myths of a peaceful Jammu.
- Terrorist groups exploit security gaps but lack strategic shift from Kashmir.
Policy and Response Options
- Retaliation Strategies
- Overt Actions (e.g. Surgical Strikes, Balakot Air Strike): Theatrical but risk escalation and uncertain strategic gains.
- Covert Retaliation: Preferred for impactful results without public escalation risks.
- Security Adjustments
- Reinforce Jammu’s security grid to address dilution of forces.
- Avoid politicizing counter-terrorism efforts.
Conclusion: There is no radical shift in trajectory despite Pahalgam attack and long-term decline in violence indicates progress toward normalcy. There is a need to sustain counter-terrorism gains through adaptive security measures along with addressing alienation in J&K while neutralizing external support networks.